MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
0-3 | Road
116
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
1-2 | Home
145
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
HORNETS
0%
GRIZZLIES
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
208.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
MEM By 1-7 points
24.3%
MEM By 8-14 points
13.8%
CHA By 1-7 points
26.2%
CHA By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
103.98
MEMPHIS
Charlotte
104.95
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Memphis
112
MEMPHIS
Charlotte
118
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hornets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 208.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
MEM @ CHA
101 - 124
Jan 28, 2026
CHA @ MEM
112 - 97
Oct 15, 2025
MEM @ CHA
116 - 145
Apr 8, 2025
MEM @ CHA
124 - 100
Jan 22, 2025
CHA @ MEM
120 - 132
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.1%
Charlotte: 35.6%
vs
Memphis: 30.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
Charlotte: 43.5%
vs
Memphis: 41.3%
Blocks (L5)
+28.1% more
Memphis: 4.5
vs
Charlotte: 3.2
Steals (L5)
+20.8% more
Memphis: 8.6
vs
Charlotte: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
104.0
116
CHA Score
105.0
145
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 30.4
40.0 / 43.3
Assists
23.3 / 22.2
35.0 / 32.0
Blocks
3.2 / 4.5
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.5 / 41.3
51.0 / 42.7
Free Throw %
70.0 / 75.8
76.7 / 80.0
Rebounding
50.0 / 46.4
56.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.8 / 8.6
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
20.0 / 18.8
15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
MEM
CHA
MEM
ML
61%
60-39
57%
59-44
48%
40-44
50%
41-41
ATS
60%
59-40
63%
65-38
48%
40-44
50%
41-41
TTL
58%
57-42
70%
71-31-1
100%
84-0
100%
82-0
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