Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Celtics TOR @ BOS

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

3-1  |  Road

108
FINAL
Wed, Oct 15 • 7:30 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

2-1  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
📊
CELTICS
0%
RAPTORS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.2 points (Boston)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

26.8%

Celtics Cover

73.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -6.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

TOR By 1-7 points

16.6%

TOR By 8-14 points

6.6%

BOS By 1-7 points

26.7%

BOS By 8-14 points

24.5%

AI Model Projected Score
107.36
TORONTO
113.56
BOSTON
Simulated Score
106
TORONTO
115
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.2
D
Sim Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 220.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 TOR @ BOS 101 - 115
Jan 9, 2026 TOR @ BOS 117 - 125
Dec 20, 2025 BOS @ TOR 112 - 96
Dec 7, 2025 BOS @ TOR 121 - 113
Oct 15, 2025 TOR @ BOS 108 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +125.8% more
Boston: 6.2 vs Toronto: 2.8
Turnovers (L5) +38.7% more
Boston: 19.6 vs Toronto: 14.1
Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Boston: 47.1% vs Toronto: 41.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.0%
Boston: 81.5% vs Toronto: 78.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 107.4 108
BOS Score 113.6 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 34.4 28.8 / 33.3
Assists 23.9 / 26.8 24.0 / 31.0
Blocks 6.2 / 2.8 12.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 41.0 38.7 / 40.4
Free Throw % 81.5 / 78.5 85.2 / 88.9
Rebounding 48.2 / 46.1 57.0 / 55.0
Steals 9.8 / 11.9 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 19.6 / 14.1 21.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TOR
BOS
TOR
ML
57% 61-46
55% 57-47
53% 47-41
55% 48-39
ATS
59% 61-43-3
61% 62-40-2
53% 47-41
55% 48-39
TTL
56% 60-47
60% 62-42
100% 88-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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