Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arizona St @ Utah ASU @ UTAH

ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

4-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 10:25 PM ET
Rice-Eccles Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH

UTAHUTAH

4-1  |  Home

42
Key Game
Jaren Hamilton
KEY GAME

Jaren Hamilton

#16 | Wide Receiver
@
Orion Phillips
KEY GAME

Orion Phillips

#92 | Punter
Player
Jaren Hamilton None-None
Orion Phillips None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA ST
100%
📊
UTAH
0%
ARIZONA ST --
UTAH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Utah)
Arizona StASU (-3.5) 0 UtahUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona St Cover

30.9%

Utah Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTAH -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

ASU By 1-6 points

12.9%

ASU By 7-13 points

9.6%

UTAH By 1-6 points

16.5%

UTAH By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
ARIZONA STATE
46
UTAH
Simulated Score
31
ARIZONA STATE
17
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Utah Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arizona St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Utah (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Arizona St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 ASU @ UTAH 10 - 42
Oct 11, 2024 UTAH @ ASU 19 - 27
Nov 4, 2023 ASU @ UTAH 3 - 55
Sep 24, 2022 UTAH @ ASU 34 - 13
Oct 16, 2021 ASU @ UTAH 21 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +90.0% more
Utah: 1.6 vs Arizona State: 0.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
Utah: 0.5 vs Arizona State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ASU Score 39.0 10
UTAH Score 46.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.1 / 24.0 23.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 207.0 / 211.2 276.0 / 149.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.39
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 431.8 / 445.8 412.0 / 273.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
UTAH Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.0 ATS +/-: +11.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
UTAH Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.0 ATS +/-: +11.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +13.8
UTAH
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
ASU
UTAH
ASU
ML
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
TTL
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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