DETROIT
PISTONSDET
1-1 | Road
100
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
0-3 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
PISTONS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
DET By 1-7 points
22.0%
DET By 8-14 points
11.1%
CLE By 1-7 points
27.2%
CLE By 8-14 points
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
114.18
DETROIT
Cleveland
116.91
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Detroit
108
DETROIT
Cleveland
115
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.7
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 17, 2026
CLE @ DET
125 - 94
May 15, 2026
DET @ CLE
115 - 94
May 13, 2026
CLE @ DET
117 - 113
May 11, 2026
DET @ CLE
103 - 112
May 9, 2026
DET @ CLE
109 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+34.5% more
Cleveland: 12.1
vs
Detroit: 9.0
Blocks (L5)
+10.5% more
Detroit: 5.2
vs
Cleveland: 4.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.5%
Detroit: 47.0%
vs
Cleveland: 40.5%
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.9%
Detroit: 72.2%
vs
Cleveland: 70.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
114.2
100
CLE Score
116.9
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.2 / 31.3
39.5 / 33.3
Assists
23.4 / 24.0
33.0 / 23.0
Blocks
4.6 / 5.2
11.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
40.5 / 47.0
47.1 / 46.6
Free Throw %
70.3 / 72.2
75.0 / 63.2
Rebounding
43.6 / 45.2
42.0 / 40.0
Steals
12.1 / 9.0
13.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
17.3 / 16.9
18.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
CLE
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DET
CLE
DET
ML
60%
69-46
55%
64-53
56%
55-44
49%
47-49
ATS
67%
75-37-3
53%
60-54-3
56%
55-44
49%
47-49
TTL
59%
68-47
60%
70-46-1
100%
99-0
100%
96-0
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