Home / NBA Projections NBA / Bulls @ Nuggets CHI @ DEN

CHICAGO

BULLSCHI

2-1  |  Road

117
FINAL
Tue, Oct 14 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

2-1  |  Home

124
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
📊
NUGGETS
0%
BULLS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.7
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.7 points (Denver)
BullsCHI (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

28.3%

Nuggets Cover

71.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -5.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

CHI By 1-7 points

17.4%

CHI By 8-14 points

7.1%

DEN By 1-7 points

27.0%

DEN By 8-14 points

24.0%

AI Model Projected Score
111.59
CHICAGO
117.32
DENVER
Simulated Score
106
CHICAGO
115
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.7
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 228.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 DEN @ CHI 136 - 120
Nov 17, 2025 CHI @ DEN 130 - 127
Oct 14, 2025 CHI @ DEN 117 - 124
Mar 24, 2025 CHI @ DEN 129 - 119
Jan 27, 2025 DEN @ CHI 121 - 129
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +21.2% more
Denver: 20.0 vs Chicago: 16.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
Denver: 35.1% vs Chicago: 30.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Denver: 48.5% vs Chicago: 46.7%
Assists (L5) +20.9% more
Chicago: 29.1 vs Denver: 23.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 111.6 117
DEN Score 117.3 124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 30.7 27.3 / 34.2
Assists 23.0 / 29.1 26.0 / 31.0
Blocks 3.8 / 3.5 4.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 46.7 43.3 / 50.6
Free Throw % 73.5 / 72.8 90.2 / 78.6
Rebounding 45.5 / 48.9 37.0 / 43.0
Steals 8.4 / 9.1 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 20.0 / 16.5 10.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
31-51-0 (37.8%)
Margin: -5.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
39-43-0 (47.6%)
Margin: -5.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7% Total +/-: +0.5
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
CHI
DEN
CHI
ML
54% 57-48
56% 54-42
55% 47-39
57% 46-35
ATS
63% 65-38-2
65% 62-33-1
55% 47-39
57% 46-35
TTL
54% 56-48-1
58% 56-40
100% 86-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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