MIAMI
HEATMIA
0-4 | Road
118
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
1-1 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
HAWKS
100%
HEAT
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
27.1%
MIA By 8-14 points
19.7%
ATL By 1-7 points
22.0%
ATL By 8-14 points
11.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
116.6
MIAMI
Atlanta
113.89
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Miami
112
MIAMI
Atlanta
115
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.7
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
ATL @ MIA
117 - 143
Feb 20, 2026
MIA @ ATL
128 - 97
Feb 3, 2026
ATL @ MIA
127 - 115
Dec 26, 2025
MIA @ ATL
126 - 111
Oct 13, 2025
MIA @ ATL
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+16.1% more
Miami: 17.6
vs
Atlanta: 14.8
Blocks (L5)
+9.3% more
Miami: 4.1
vs
Atlanta: 3.7
Assists (L5)
+33.1% more
Atlanta: 30.2
vs
Miami: 22.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.5%
Atlanta: 47.3%
vs
Miami: 41.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
116.6
118
ATL Score
113.9
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.3 / 32.5
25.0 / 14.7
Assists
30.2 / 22.7
22.0 / 22.0
Blocks
3.7 / 4.1
15.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 41.8
36.1 / 38.9
Free Throw %
76.8 / 72.3
70.7 / 83.3
Rebounding
43.4 / 42.5
58.0 / 70.0
Steals
9.1 / 9.3
11.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 17.6
16.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIA
ATL
MIA
ML
50%
52-52
48%
46-50
55%
48-40
59%
48-34
ATS
53%
55-48-1
51%
49-47
55%
48-40
59%
48-34
TTL
53%
55-48-1
59%
57-39
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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