NEW JERSEY
DEVILSNJ
0-1-0 | Road
5
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
0-1-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jonas Siegenthaler
#71 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Siegenthaler | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 5.29 | 0.839 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
5.29
--
Save %
0.839
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
DEVILS
100%
LIGHTNING
0%
DEVILS
--
LIGHTNING
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
NJ By 1 goal
6.6%
NJ By 2-3 goals
3.7%
TB By 1 goal
17.5%
TB By 2-3 goals
37.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New Jersey
2
NEW JERSEY
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
New Jersey
3
NEW JERSEY
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lightning
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lightning
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lightning (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Lightning (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 11, 2025
TB @ NJ
8 - 4
Nov 18, 2025
NJ @ TB
1 - 5
Oct 11, 2025
NJ @ TB
5 - 3
Jan 11, 2025
TB @ NJ
2 - 3
Nov 16, 2024
NJ @ TB
0 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+60.8%
Tampa Bay: 61.4%
vs
New Jersey: 0.6%
Hits (L5)
+29.8% more
Tampa Bay: 34.2
vs
New Jersey: 26.4
Takeaways (L5)
+14.3% more
Tampa Bay: 2.1
vs
New Jersey: 1.8
Shots on Goal (L5)
+9.3% more
Tampa Bay: 24.9
vs
New Jersey: 22.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NJ Score
2.0
5
TB Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.7 / 19.2
17.0 / 24.0
Faceoff %
46.1 / 47.1
42.4 / 57.6
Hits
34.2 / 26.4
25.0 / 27.0
Power Play %
6137.0 / 61.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
24.9 / 22.8
17.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
2.1 / 1.8
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NJ
TB
NJ
ML
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
TTL
67%
2-1
0%
0-2-1
100%
3-0
50%
1-1-1
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