WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
0-1-0 | Road
4
NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
0-1-0 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 2.01 | 0.944 | -- |
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 4.27 | 0.862 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.01 Ldr
GAA
4.27
0.944 Ldr
Save %
0.862
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
ISLANDERS
0%
CAPITALS
--
ISLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)
WSH By 1 goal
12.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
9.3%
NYI By 1 goal
19.7%
NYI By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
New York
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
New York
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Islanders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Islanders
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Islanders (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Islanders (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 2, 2026
NYI @ WSH
1 - 4
Nov 30, 2025
WSH @ NYI
4 - 1
Oct 31, 2025
NYI @ WSH
3 - 1
Oct 11, 2025
WSH @ NYI
4 - 2
Apr 15, 2025
WSH @ NYI
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5)
+8.2%
New York: 57.8%
vs
Washington: 49.6%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+8.2% more
New York: 36.5
vs
Washington: 33.7
Hits (L5)
+14.8% more
Washington: 28.2
vs
New York: 24.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.0
4
NYI Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.7 / 12.7
22.0 / 20.0
Faceoff %
57.8 / 49.6
52.5 / 47.5
Hits
24.0 / 28.2
33.0 / 23.0
Power Play %
1.0 / 1.7
66.7 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
36.5 / 33.7
36.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
2.2 / 2.3
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
WSH
NYI
WSH
ML
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
2-0-1
33%
1-2
100%
2-0-1
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…