MIAMI
HEATMIA
0-3 | Road
104
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
2-0 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
MAGIC
0%
HEAT
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
MIA By 1-7 points
20.8%
MIA By 8-14 points
9.8%
ORL By 1-7 points
27.3%
ORL By 8-14 points
21.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
107.04
MIAMI
Orlando
110.63
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Miami
105
MIAMI
Orlando
108
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Magic
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Magic
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Magic (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.6
D
Sim
Magic (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 217.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
ORL @ MIA
121 - 117
Jan 28, 2026
ORL @ MIA
133 - 124
Dec 9, 2025
MIA @ ORL
108 - 117
Dec 5, 2025
MIA @ ORL
105 - 106
Oct 22, 2025
MIA @ ORL
121 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+92.6% more
Orlando: 7.0
vs
Miami: 3.7
Rebounding (L5)
+14.0% more
Orlando: 49.3
vs
Miami: 43.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.4%
Orlando: 77.1%
vs
Miami: 71.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Orlando: 45.1%
vs
Miami: 43.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
107.0
104
ORL Score
110.6
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.5 / 35.1
32.5 / 27.3
Assists
22.3 / 24.1
23.0 / 20.0
Blocks
7.0 / 3.7
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.1 / 43.4
39.4 / 38.5
Free Throw %
77.1 / 71.7
86.8 / 73.5
Rebounding
49.3 / 43.3
60.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.0 / 7.4
8.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
16.1 / 18.9
20.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
MIA
ORL
MIA
ML
61%
65-42
48%
46-50
56%
51-40
59%
48-34
ATS
64%
68-38-1
51%
49-47
56%
51-40
59%
48-34
TTL
57%
61-46
59%
57-39
100%
91-0
100%
82-0
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