CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
0-2 | Road
107
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
1-1 | Home
138
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
CELTICS
0%
CAVALIERS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
CLE By 1-7 points
23.9%
CLE By 8-14 points
13.2%
BOS By 1-7 points
26.5%
BOS By 8-14 points
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
114.38
CLEVELAND
Boston
115.73
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Cleveland
108
CLEVELAND
Boston
115
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
BOS @ CLE
109 - 98
Nov 30, 2025
BOS @ CLE
117 - 115
Oct 29, 2025
CLE @ BOS
105 - 125
Oct 12, 2025
CLE @ BOS
107 - 138
Feb 28, 2025
CLE @ BOS
123 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+19.7% more
Boston: 18.4
vs
Cleveland: 15.4
Blocks (L5)
+16.2% more
Boston: 6.3
vs
Cleveland: 5.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.0%
Boston: 78.7%
vs
Cleveland: 70.6%
Steals (L5)
+26.7% more
Cleveland: 11.2
vs
Boston: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
114.4
107
BOS Score
115.7
138
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.4 / 35.3
40.0 / 20.0
Assists
22.3 / 23.0
27.0 / 24.0
Blocks
6.3 / 5.4
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.4 / 43.1
52.4 / 35.3
Free Throw %
78.7 / 70.6
87.2 / 69.7
Rebounding
46.8 / 43.9
51.0 / 43.0
Steals
8.2 / 11.2
13.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
18.4 / 15.4
22.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CLE
BOS
CLE
ML
57%
61-46
60%
69-46
53%
47-41
56%
55-44
ATS
59%
61-43-3
67%
75-37-3
53%
47-41
56%
55-44
TTL
56%
60-47
59%
68-47
100%
88-0
100%
99-0
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