Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Pacers OKC @ IND

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

2-1  |  Road

101
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

1-0  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
PACERS
0%
THUNDER --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Indiana)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

39.1%

Pacers Cover

60.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

OKC By 1-7 points

21.9%

OKC By 8-14 points

11.0%

IND By 1-7 points

27.2%

IND By 8-14 points

19.8%

AI Model Projected Score
108.77
OKLAHOMA CITY
111.55
INDIANA
Simulated Score
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
115
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pacers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pacers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.8
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 220.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 23, 2026 IND @ OKC 117 - 114
Oct 23, 2025 OKC @ IND 141 - 135
Oct 11, 2025 OKC @ IND 101 - 116
Jun 22, 2025 IND @ OKC 91 - 103
Jun 19, 2025 OKC @ IND 91 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +32.2% more
Indiana: 20.2 vs Oklahoma City: 15.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
Indiana: 39.1% vs Oklahoma City: 33.1%
Blocks (L5) +27.1% more
Oklahoma City: 7.7 vs Indiana: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 108.8 101
IND Score 111.6 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.1 / 33.1 25.0 / 32.4
Assists 24.8 / 24.3 31.0 / 18.0
Blocks 5.6 / 7.7 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 43.8 47.1 / 38.6
Free Throw % 77.2 / 78.1 75.9 / 83.3
Rebounding 45.7 / 42.7 54.0 / 37.0
Steals 10.5 / 11.0 9.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 20.2 / 15.2 23.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
OKC
IND
OKC
ML
48% 47-50
70% 80-34
54% 45-38
48% 46-49
ATS
59% 57-40
73% 83-30-1
54% 45-38
48% 46-49
TTL
54% 52-45
67% 76-38
100% 83-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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