ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
0-1 | Road
122
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
0-2 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
HAWKS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
ATL By 1-7 points
23.9%
ATL By 8-14 points
13.2%
MEM By 1-7 points
26.4%
MEM By 8-14 points
17.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
115.16
ATLANTA
Memphis
116.47
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Memphis
115
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.3
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 23, 2026
MEM @ ATL
107 - 146
Jan 21, 2026
ATL @ MEM
124 - 122
Oct 11, 2025
ATL @ MEM
122 - 116
Mar 3, 2025
ATL @ MEM
132 - 130
Dec 21, 2024
MEM @ ATL
128 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+56.1% more
Memphis: 19.7
vs
Atlanta: 12.6
Blocks (L5)
+27.9% more
Memphis: 5.2
vs
Atlanta: 4.1
Rebounding (L5)
+13.6% more
Memphis: 46.6
vs
Atlanta: 41.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.1%
Memphis: 79.6%
vs
Atlanta: 73.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
115.2
122
MEM Score
116.5
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.7 / 32.5
29.8 / 29.0
Assists
21.8 / 29.8
23.0 / 31.0
Blocks
5.2 / 4.1
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
41.6 / 45.1
40.7 / 51.8
Free Throw %
79.6 / 73.5
68.3 / 83.3
Rebounding
46.6 / 41.0
46.0 / 48.0
Steals
8.9 / 10.7
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
19.7 / 12.6
17.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
ATL
MEM
ATL
ML
57%
59-44
50%
52-52
50%
41-41
55%
48-40
ATS
63%
65-38
53%
55-48-1
50%
41-41
55%
48-40
TTL
70%
71-31-1
53%
55-48-1
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
Contextual Game News
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
Bill Self's Revamped Kansas Roster Built for Another National Ti…
Hawks Look to Bounce Back Against Spurs in Preseason Clash
Desmond Bane Returns to FedExForum as Grizzlies Host Magic in Pr…
Zach Edey to Sit Out Grizzlies' Preseason Opener vs. Hawks, Team…