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CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

0-2  |  Road

120
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

1-0  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
HORNETS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
206.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.4
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.4 points (Dallas)
HornetsCHA (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

26.0%

Mavericks Cover

74.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -6.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

CHA By 1-7 points

16.3%

CHA By 8-14 points

6.4%

DAL By 1-7 points

26.6%

DAL By 8-14 points

24.7%

AI Model Projected Score
100.04
CHARLOTTE
106.46
DALLAS
Simulated Score
118
CHARLOTTE
109
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hornets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.4
D
Sim Hornets (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 206.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 DAL @ CHA 90 - 117
Jan 29, 2026 CHA @ DAL 123 - 121
Oct 11, 2025 CHA @ DAL 120 - 116
Feb 27, 2025 CHA @ DAL 96 - 103
Jan 20, 2025 DAL @ CHA 105 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +125.1% more
Dallas: 8.6 vs Charlotte: 3.8
Assists (L5) +15.4% more
Dallas: 26.0 vs Charlotte: 22.5
Free Throw % (L5) +6.7%
Dallas: 81.3% vs Charlotte: 74.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
Dallas: 46.1% vs Charlotte: 40.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHA Score 100.0 120
DAL Score 106.5 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 32.8 37.0 / 41.0
Assists 26.0 / 22.5 30.0 / 25.0
Blocks 8.6 / 3.8 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 40.7 51.1 / 48.9
Free Throw % 81.3 / 74.5 66.7 / 60.9
Rebounding 46.1 / 47.9 37.0 / 54.0
Steals 7.0 / 8.2 16.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 18.0 / 17.5 14.0 / 25.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA Advantage
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
CHA
DAL
CHA
ML
62% 63-39
61% 60-39
54% 44-37
48% 40-44
ATS
67% 68-34
60% 59-40
54% 44-37
48% 40-44
TTL
59% 60-41-1
58% 57-42
100% 81-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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