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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

1-2  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Oct 9 • 6:08 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

2-1  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orion Kerkering None-None 6.75 -- -- --
Alex Vesia None-None 6.00 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
6.75 ERA Ldr 6.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
20%
📊
DODGERS
80%
PHILLIES --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Los Angeles)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

47.1%

Dodgers Cover

52.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

PHI By 1-2 runs

17.9%

PHI By 3-4 runs

12.7%

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.9%

LAD By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5.53
PHILADELPHIA
5.82
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
80% Win Prob
B
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 LAD @ PHI 9 - 5
Jul 21, 2026 LAD @ PHI 2 - 1
Jul 20, 2026 LAD @ PHI 7 - 10
May 31, 2026 PHI @ LAD 1 - 9
May 30, 2026 PHI @ LAD 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Los Angeles LAD
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.424
.724
OPS
▲ .762
3
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +6700.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Errors (L5) +93.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.0 vs Philadelphia: 0.1
Walks (L5) +78.3% more
Los Angeles: 4.5 vs Philadelphia: 2.5
Runs per Game (Season) +41.1% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 5.5 1
LAD Score 5.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.1 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.4 / 8.3 7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 9.8 12.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 13.8 / 14.5 7.0 / 6.0
Walks 4.5 / 2.5 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
PHI
LAD
PHI
ML
56% 92-73
59% 97-67
48% 79-87
49% 80-84
ATS
59% 98-67
65% 107-57
43% 72-94
51% 83-81
TTL
48% 77-82-6
57% 88-67-9
44% 70-90-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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