Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bills @ Falcons BUF @ ATL

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

4-1  |  Road

14
FINAL
Mon, Oct 13 • 7:15 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

2-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Dee Alford
KEY GAME

Dee Alford

#23 | Cornerback
@
DeAngelo Malone
KEY GAME

DeAngelo Malone

#50 | Linebacker
Player
Dee Alford None-None
DeAngelo Malone None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
BILLS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Buffalo)
BillsBUF (-3.5) 0 FalconsATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

94.2%

Falcons Cover

5.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BUF -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1-6 points

7.2%

BUF By 7-13 points

13.8%

ATL By 1-6 points

3.3%

ATL By 7-13 points

1.5%

AI Model Projected Score
38
BUFFALO
16
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
20
BUFFALO
27
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bills Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bills (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 13, 2025 BUF @ ATL 14 - 24
Jan 2, 2022 ATL @ BUF 15 - 29
Oct 1, 2017 BUF @ ATL 23 - 17
Dec 1, 2013 ATL @ BUF 34 - 31
Dec 27, 2009 BUF @ ATL 3 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +13.8% more
Atlanta: 1.4 vs Buffalo: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 38.0 14
ATL Score 16.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 23.4 22.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 239.4 / 224.4 233.0 / 157.0
Rushing Yards 143.4 / 148.7 210.0 / 134.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.22
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 382.7 / 373.0 443.0 / 291.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 6.0 6.7 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
BUF
ATL
BUF
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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