Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ Jets DEN @ NYJ

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

3-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Oct 12 • 9:30 AM ET
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

0-5  |  Home

11
Key Game
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
@
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
Player
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
Austin McNamara None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
📊
JETS
100%
BRONCOS --
JETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Denver)
BroncosDEN (-3.5) 0 JetsNYJ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

69.1%

Jets Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DEN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-6 points

16.5%

DEN By 7-13 points

19.3%

NYJ By 1-6 points

12.9%

NYJ By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
27
DENVER
20
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
20
DENVER
24
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jets Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Broncos (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Jets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 12, 2025 DEN @ NYJ 13 - 11
Sep 29, 2024 DEN @ NYJ 10 - 9
Oct 8, 2023 NYJ @ DEN 31 - 21
Oct 23, 2022 NYJ @ DEN 16 - 9
Sep 26, 2021 NYJ @ DEN 0 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +13.6% more
Denver: 230.0 vs New York: 198.6
Turnovers (L5) +100.0% more
New York: 1.7 vs Denver: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 27.0 13
NYJ Score 20.0 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 21.6 8.0 / 12.0
Net Passing Yards 198.6 / 230.0 -10.0 / 168.0
Rushing Yards 142.1 / 138.0 92.0 / 78.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.13 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 340.7 / 368.0 82.0 / 246.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 5.6 1.4 / 4.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
NYJ Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYJ
DEN
NYJ
DEN
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
100% 4-0
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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