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CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

1-4  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sun, Oct 12 • 1:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

3-1  |  Home

23
Key Game
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
@
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
Player
Corey Bojorquez None-None
Chris Boswell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BROWNS
100%
📊
STEELERS
0%
BROWNS --
STEELERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Pittsburgh)
BrownsCLE (-3.5) 0 SteelersPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Browns Cover

4.3%

Steelers Cover

95.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PIT -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

CLE By 1-6 points

2.5%

CLE By 7-13 points

1.1%

PIT By 1-6 points

5.9%

PIT By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
10
CLEVELAND
34
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
20
CLEVELAND
23
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Steelers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Steelers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Steelers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Steelers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 1, 2026 PIT @ CLE 24 - 27
Dec 28, 2025 PIT @ CLE 6 - 13
Oct 12, 2025 CLE @ PIT 9 - 23
Dec 8, 2024 CLE @ PIT 14 - 27
Nov 21, 2024 PIT @ CLE 19 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Yards Per Play (L5) +15.9% more
Pittsburgh: 5.0 vs Cleveland: 4.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.4 vs Cleveland: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +53.0% more
Cleveland: 1.5 vs Pittsburgh: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.9% more
Cleveland: 105.8 vs Pittsburgh: 91.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 10.0 9
PIT Score 34.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.0 / 16.8 19.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 179.8 / 179.7 235.0 / 183.0
Rushing Yards 91.1 / 105.8 100.0 / 65.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 270.9 / 285.5 335.0 / 248.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.5 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 4.3 5.8 / 3.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CLE
PIT
CLE
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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