Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Dolphins LAC @ MIA

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

3-2  |  Road

29
FINAL
Sun, Oct 12 • 1:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

1-4  |  Home

27
Key Game
Alec Ingold
KEY GAME

Alec Ingold

#30 | Fullback
@
Chop Robinson
KEY GAME

Chop Robinson

#44 | Linebacker
Player
Alec Ingold None-None
Chop Robinson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
100%
📊
DOLPHINS
0%
CHARGERS --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
ChargersLAC (-3.5) 0 DolphinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

47.2%

Dolphins Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

LAC By 1-6 points

16.1%

LAC By 7-13 points

14.6%

MIA By 1-6 points

16.7%

MIA By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
32
LOS ANGELES
33
MIAMI
Simulated Score
24
LOS ANGELES
27
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dolphins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dolphins Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dolphins (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Dolphins (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 12, 2025 LAC @ MIA 29 - 27
Sep 10, 2023 MIA @ LAC 36 - 34
Dec 11, 2022 MIA @ LAC 17 - 23
Nov 15, 2020 LAC @ MIA 21 - 29
Sep 29, 2019 LAC @ MIA 30 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +59.9% more
Los Angeles: 1.7 vs Miami: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.0% more
Los Angeles: 127.6 vs Miami: 77.8
Total Yards (L5) +18.4% more
Los Angeles: 345.4 vs Miami: 282.0
First Downs (L5) +13.1% more
Los Angeles: 19.7 vs Miami: 17.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 32.0 29
MIA Score 33.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.1 / 19.7 19.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 204.2 / 217.9 204.0 / 263.0
Rushing Yards 77.8 / 127.6 137.0 / 140.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 282.0 / 345.4 341.0 / 403.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.7 3.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 5.5 6.1 / 6.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
MIA Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
LAC
MIA
LAC
ML
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
0% 0-3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Garrett Wilson's Accountability Shines Amid Jets' 1-3 Start, But…
si 1 hour, 13 minutes ago
Bengals Defender Exposes Malik Willis's Pre-Throw Tic Before Dol…
bleacherreport 1 hour, 22 minutes ago
Eagles Receiver Dontayvion Wicks Added to Injury Report with Ham…
sportingnews 1 hour, 26 minutes ago
Steelers' Michael Pittman Jr. Sidelined Multiple Weeks with Foot…
newsweek 7 hours, 15 minutes ago
Rams' Special Teams Crisis: A 2026 Season Breakdown and How to F…
si 7 hours, 16 minutes ago