Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cardinals @ Colts ARI @ IND

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

2-3  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sun, Oct 12 • 1:00 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
View Odds Details →

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

4-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Chad Ryland
KEY GAME

Chad Ryland

#38 | Place kicker
@
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
Player
Chad Ryland None-None
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
COLTS
0%
CARDINALS --
COLTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Indianapolis)
CardinalsARI (-3.5) 0 ColtsIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

1.1%

Colts Cover

98.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IND -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

ARI By 1-6 points

0.7%

ARI By 7-13 points

0.2%

IND By 1-6 points

2.2%

IND By 7-13 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
10
ARIZONA
42
INDIANAPOLIS
Simulated Score
24
ARIZONA
27
INDIANAPOLIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Colts Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colts Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Colts (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim Colts (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 12, 2025 ARI @ IND 27 - 31
Dec 25, 2021 IND @ ARI 22 - 16
Sep 17, 2017 ARI @ IND 16 - 13
Nov 24, 2013 IND @ ARI 11 - 40
Sep 27, 2009 IND @ ARI 31 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +30.0% more
Indianapolis: 239.3 vs Arizona: 184.1
First Downs (L5) +25.8% more
Indianapolis: 22.2 vs Arizona: 17.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +20.0% more
Indianapolis: 6.1 vs Arizona: 5.0
Total Yards (L5) +15.2% more
Indianapolis: 360.2 vs Arizona: 312.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 10.0 27
IND Score 42.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.2 / 17.7 25.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 239.3 / 184.1 205.0 / 312.0
Rushing Yards 120.9 / 128.6 150.0 / 88.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.64
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 360.2 / 312.7 355.0 / 400.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.7 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 5.0 6.1 / 5.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
IND Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
ARI
IND
ARI
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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