Home / NFL Projections NFL / Patriots @ Saints NE @ NO

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

3-2  |  Road

25
FINAL
Sun, Oct 12 • 1:00 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

1-4  |  Home

19
Key Game
Bryce Baringer
KEY GAME

Bryce Baringer

#17 | Punter
@
Mason Tipton
KEY GAME

Mason Tipton

#15 | Wide Receiver
Player
Bryce Baringer None-None
Mason Tipton None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
100%
📊
SAINTS
0%
PATRIOTS --
SAINTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (New Orleans)
PatriotsNE (-3.5) 0 SaintsNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

23.8%

Saints Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NO -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

NE By 1-6 points

10.7%

NE By 7-13 points

7.3%

NO By 1-6 points

15.3%

NO By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
20
NEW ENGLAND
30
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
20
NEW ENGLAND
24
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Saints Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Saints Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Saints (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Saints (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 12, 2025 NE @ NO 25 - 19
Oct 8, 2023 NO @ NE 34 - 0
Sep 26, 2021 NO @ NE 28 - 13
Sep 17, 2017 NE @ NO 36 - 20
Oct 13, 2013 NO @ NE 27 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.8% more
New Orleans: 112.8 vs New England: 94.2
Turnovers (L5) +54.5% more
New England: 1.3 vs New Orleans: 0.6
Net Passing Yards (L5) +17.7% more
New England: 235.7 vs New Orleans: 193.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +16.8% more
New England: 5.8 vs New Orleans: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 20.0 25
NO Score 30.0 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 19.8 17.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 193.9 / 235.7 223.0 / 260.0
Rushing Yards 112.8 / 94.2 73.0 / 73.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 306.7 / 329.8 296.0 / 333.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.8 / 5.8 5.8 / 5.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
NE
NO
NE
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
0% 0-4
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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