Home / NFL Projections NFL / 49ers @ Buccaneers SF @ TB

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

4-1  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sun, Oct 12 • 4:25 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

4-1  |  Home

30
Key Game
Eddy Pineiro
KEY GAME

Eddy Pineiro

#18 | Place kicker
@
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
Player
Eddy Pineiro None-None
Riley Dixon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
49ERS
100%
📊
BUCCANEERS
0%
49ERS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
49ersSF (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

49ers Cover

47.2%

Buccaneers Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

SF By 1-6 points

16.1%

SF By 7-13 points

14.6%

TB By 1-6 points

16.7%

TB By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
27
SAN FRANCISCO
28
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
17
SAN FRANCISCO
27
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 12, 2025 SF @ TB 19 - 30
Nov 10, 2024 SF @ TB 23 - 20
Nov 19, 2023 TB @ SF 14 - 27
Dec 11, 2022 TB @ SF 7 - 35
Sep 8, 2019 SF @ TB 31 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.0% more
Tampa Bay: 103.3 vs San Francisco: 83.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +10.7% more
Tampa Bay: 6.1 vs San Francisco: 5.5
Turnovers (L5) +61.7% more
San Francisco: 1.5 vs Tampa Bay: 0.6
Net Passing Yards (L5) +8.2% more
San Francisco: 302.6 vs Tampa Bay: 277.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 27.0 19
TB Score 28.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 23.6 19.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 277.8 / 302.6 248.0 / 296.0
Rushing Yards 103.3 / 83.3 104.0 / 67.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 381.1 / 385.9 352.0 / 363.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 5.5 7.0 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
SF
TB
SF
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
DeMarvion Overshown Pays Tribute to Jake Ehlinger with Custom Je…
si 0 minutes ago
Cowboys Release TCU Alum Emari Demercado, Activate All-Pro Tyler…
star_telegram 0 minutes ago
CeeDee Lamb Nears Historic Cowboys Milestone in Thursday Night C…
newsweek 5 hours, 45 minutes ago
Week 5 Fantasy Football: Tight End Start/Sit — Ferguson, Gesicki…
usatoday 12 hours, 6 minutes ago
Buccaneers Safety Antoine Winfield Sidelined, Adding to Tampa Ba…
yardbarker 18 hours, 11 minutes ago