Home / NFL Projections NFL / Lions @ Chiefs DET @ KC

DETROIT

LIONSDET

4-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Oct 12 • 8:20 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

2-3  |  Home

30
Key Game
Isiah Pacheco
KEY GAME

Isiah Pacheco

#10 | Running Back
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
Isiah Pacheco None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
📊
CHIEFS
100%
LIONS --
CHIEFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
21.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Detroit)
LionsDET (-3.5) 0 ChiefsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

58.5%

Chiefs Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DET -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-6 points

17.0%

DET By 7-13 points

17.5%

KC By 1-6 points

15.3%

KC By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
12
DETROIT
9
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
27
DETROIT
31
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chiefs Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lions (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Chiefs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 21.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 12, 2025 DET @ KC 17 - 30
Sep 7, 2023 DET @ KC 21 - 20
Sep 29, 2019 KC @ DET 34 - 30
Nov 1, 2015 DET @ KC 10 - 45
Sep 18, 2011 KC @ DET 3 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +32.0% more
Detroit: 0.9 vs Kansas City: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.7% more
Detroit: 139.1 vs Kansas City: 122.9
Net Passing Yards (L5) +8.9% more
Kansas City: 255.4 vs Detroit: 234.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 12.0 17
KC Score 9.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 21.8 26.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 255.4 / 234.6 243.0 / 199.0
Rushing Yards 122.9 / 139.1 112.0 / 98.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 378.3 / 373.7 355.0 / 297.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.0 / 6.1 5.7 / 5.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
KC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
DET
KC
DET
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
67% 2-1-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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