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BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

1-0  |  Road

105
FINAL
Fri, Oct 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

1-1  |  Home

107
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
100%
📊
RAPTORS
0%
CELTICS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Toronto)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

49.1%

Raptors Cover

50.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

BOS By 1-7 points

25.1%

BOS By 8-14 points

14.9%

TOR By 1-7 points

25.6%

TOR By 8-14 points

15.7%

AI Model Projected Score
109.61
BOSTON
109.84
TORONTO
Simulated Score
106
BOSTON
118
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raptors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raptors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.2
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 219.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 TOR @ BOS 101 - 115
Jan 9, 2026 TOR @ BOS 117 - 125
Dec 20, 2025 BOS @ TOR 112 - 96
Dec 7, 2025 BOS @ TOR 121 - 113
Oct 15, 2025 TOR @ BOS 108 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +51.7% more
Toronto: 11.8 vs Boston: 7.8
Assists (L5) +31.8% more
Toronto: 29.6 vs Boston: 22.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
Toronto: 38.5% vs Boston: 33.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Toronto: 45.4% vs Boston: 43.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 109.6 105
TOR Score 109.8 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.5 / 33.9 34.8 / 26.3
Assists 29.6 / 22.5 30.0 / 22.0
Blocks 3.2 / 7.5 0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 43.7 43.2 / 45.8
Free Throw % 73.4 / 72.7 71.4 / 90.5
Rebounding 42.5 / 43.1 34.0 / 54.0
Steals 11.8 / 7.8 12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 13.1 19.0 / 29.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BOS
TOR
BOS
ML
55% 57-47
57% 61-46
55% 48-39
53% 47-41
ATS
61% 62-40-2
59% 61-43-3
55% 48-39
53% 47-41
TTL
60% 62-42
56% 60-47
100% 87-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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