SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
0-1 | Road
123
PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
0-1 | Home
124
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
KINGS
--
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Portland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around POR -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)
SAC By 1-7 points
23.6%
SAC By 8-14 points
12.8%
POR By 1-7 points
26.6%
POR By 8-14 points
17.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento
110.48
SACRAMENTO
Portland
112.06
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
Sacramento
115
SACRAMENTO
Portland
109
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Trail Blazers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Trail Blazers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.6
D
Sim
Kings (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 222.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
SAC @ POR
110 - 122
Jan 18, 2026
POR @ SAC
117 - 110
Dec 20, 2025
POR @ SAC
98 - 93
Dec 18, 2025
SAC @ POR
133 - 134
Oct 10, 2025
SAC @ POR
123 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+27.5% more
Portland: 9.0
vs
Sacramento: 7.1
Rebounding (L5)
+24.4% more
Portland: 53.9
vs
Sacramento: 43.3
Turnovers (L5)
+15.3% more
Portland: 18.0
vs
Sacramento: 15.6
Blocks (L5)
+19.2% more
Sacramento: 6.0
vs
Portland: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
110.5
123
POR Score
112.1
124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.7 / 36.3
27.0 / 32.4
Assists
25.2 / 25.0
17.0 / 20.0
Blocks
4.9 / 6.0
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.6 / 48.6
47.3 / 48.9
Free Throw %
64.6 / 81.5
70.0 / 78.8
Rebounding
53.9 / 43.3
50.0 / 38.0
Steals
9.0 / 7.1
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
18.0 / 15.6
18.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
POR
Advantage
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
SAC
POR
SAC
ML
53%
56-49
55%
55-45
55%
49-40
61%
50-32
ATS
62%
65-39-1
54%
52-45-3
55%
49-40
61%
50-32
TTL
56%
58-46-1
58%
57-42-1
100%
89-0
100%
82-0
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