TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
2-1 | Road
5
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
1-2 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braydon Fisher
#63 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braydon Fisher | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| David Bednar | None-None | 1.50 | -- | 1.2 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.40
ERA
Ldr 1.50
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
80%
YANKEES
20%
BLUE JAYS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
TOR By 1-2 runs
18.1%
TOR By 3-4 runs
13.0%
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.8%
NYY By 3-4 runs
14.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5.48
TORONTO
New York
5.69
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Loss
20% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TOR @ NYY
3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026
TOR @ NYY
4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TOR @ NYY
1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026
NYY @ TOR
4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026
NYY @ TOR
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.692
OPS
▲
1.041
152
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+125.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Slugging Pct (Season)
+21.3%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Toronto: 38.1%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+13.7%
New York: 44.7%
vs
Toronto: 31.0%
Batting Avg (Season)
+12.8%
New York: 37.5%
vs
Toronto: 24.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.5
5
NYY Score
5.7
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.5 / 11.2
6.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 2.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 9.4
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.5 / 21.3
10.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.4
1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TOR
NYY
TOR
ML
47%
76-85
46%
74-87
52%
85-77
50%
80-80
ATS
59%
95-66
56%
90-71
53%
86-76
49%
79-81
TTL
53%
81-73-7
51%
80-76-5
53%
82-72-7
45%
70-85-5
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