OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
0-0-0 | Road
5
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
0-0-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 4.01 | 0.840 | -- |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 4.07 | 0.879 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.01 Ldr
GAA
4.07
0.840
Save %
Ldr 0.879
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
100%
LIGHTNING
0%
SENATORS
--
LIGHTNING
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
OTT By 1 goal
12.1%
OTT By 2-3 goals
9.3%
TB By 1 goal
19.7%
TB By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Ottawa
4
OTTAWA
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lightning
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Senators
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lightning (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Senators (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 7, 2026
TB @ OTT
2 - 6
Mar 28, 2026
OTT @ TB
2 - 4
Oct 9, 2025
OTT @ TB
5 - 4
Apr 3, 2025
TB @ OTT
1 - 2
Feb 6, 2025
OTT @ TB
1 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+18.0% more
Tampa Bay: 31.4
vs
Ottawa: 26.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+7.7%
Tampa Bay: 51.4%
vs
Ottawa: 43.6%
Takeaways (L5)
+51.5% more
Ottawa: 2.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
2.0
5
TB Score
3.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.1 / 14.1
18.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
51.4 / 43.6
45.5 / 54.5
Hits
31.4 / 26.6
40.0 / 37.0
Power Play %
15.8 / 15.1
66.7 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
24.4 / 23.1
25.0 / 34.0
Takeaways
1.1 / 2.3
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
OTT
TB
OTT
ML
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
TTL
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
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