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CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

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116
FINAL
Thu, Oct 9 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

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122
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
HORNETS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.6
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.6 points (Oklahoma City)
HornetsCHA (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

5.9%

Thunder Cover

94.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -15.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

CHA By 1-7 points

4.3%

CHA By 8-14 points

0.9%

OKC By 1-7 points

14.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

24.7%

AI Model Projected Score
97.8
CHARLOTTE
113.4
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
109
CHARLOTTE
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.6
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 211.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 5, 2026 CHA @ OKC 124 - 97
Nov 15, 2025 OKC @ CHA 109 - 96
Oct 9, 2025 CHA @ OKC 116 - 122
Oct 5, 2025 OKC @ CHA 135 - 114
Mar 21, 2025 CHA @ OKC 106 - 141
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +63.9% more
Oklahoma City: 12.0 vs Charlotte: 7.3
Blocks (L5) +33.9% more
Oklahoma City: 5.0 vs Charlotte: 3.8
Free Throw % (L5) +3.2%
Oklahoma City: 77.5% vs Charlotte: 74.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Oklahoma City: 32.2% vs Charlotte: 30.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHA Score 97.8 116
OKC Score 113.4 122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 30.6 34.9 / 37.2
Assists 21.5 / 23.3 30.0 / 21.0
Blocks 5.0 / 3.8 13.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 41.2 / 40.6 48.9 / 40.9
Free Throw % 77.5 / 74.3 79.2 / 75.0
Rebounding 42.6 / 46.4 43.0 / 51.0
Steals 12.0 / 7.3 9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 16.8 16.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
CHA
OKC
CHA
ML
70% 80-34
61% 60-39
48% 46-49
48% 40-44
ATS
73% 83-30-1
60% 59-40
48% 46-49
48% 40-44
TTL
67% 76-38
58% 57-42
100% 95-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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