TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
2-0 | Road
6
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
0-2 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendon Little | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| David Bednar | None-None | 2.08 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.40
ERA
Ldr 2.08
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
100%
YANKEES
0%
BLUE JAYS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
44%
Under 0
56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
17.2%
NYY By 1-2 runs
15.3%
NYY By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
6.44
TORONTO
New York
5.06
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
100% Win Prob
A
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
C
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TOR @ NYY
3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026
TOR @ NYY
4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TOR @ NYY
1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026
NYY @ TOR
4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026
NYY @ TOR
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.692
OPS
▲
1.041
152
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.7% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Home Runs (L5)
+75.9% more
Toronto: 3.2
vs
New York: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+51.0% more
Toronto: 25.0
vs
New York: 12.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+40.1% more
Toronto: 11.1
vs
New York: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
6.4
6
NYY Score
5.1
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.5
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.3 / 12.3
12.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 3.2
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 11.1
11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 25.0
22.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.1
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TOR
NYY
TOR
ML
47%
76-85
46%
74-87
52%
85-77
50%
80-80
ATS
59%
95-66
56%
90-71
53%
86-76
49%
79-81
TTL
53%
81-73-7
51%
80-76-5
53%
82-72-7
45%
70-85-5
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