Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Toledo @ Bowling Green TOL @ BGSU

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

3-2  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 12:00 PM ET
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

2-3  |  Home

28
Key Game
Emilio Duran
KEY GAME

Emilio Duran

#36 | Punter
@
Brennan Ridley
KEY GAME

Brennan Ridley

#5 | Wide Receiver
Player
Emilio Duran None-None
Brennan Ridley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TOLEDO
0%
📊
BOWLING GREEN
100%
TOLEDO --
BOWLING GREEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Toledo)
ToledoTOL (-3.5) 0 Bowling GreenBGSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Toledo Cover

97.7%

Bowling Green Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TOL -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

TOL By 1-6 points

3.8%

TOL By 7-13 points

8.8%

BGSU By 1-6 points

1.4%

BGSU By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
TOLEDO
11
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
27
TOLEDO
20
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Toledo Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Toledo Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Toledo (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Toledo (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 TOL @ BGSU 23 - 28
Oct 26, 2024 BGSU @ TOL 41 - 26
Nov 14, 2023 TOL @ BGSU 32 - 31
Nov 15, 2022 BGSU @ TOL 42 - 35
Nov 10, 2021 TOL @ BGSU 49 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.2% more
Toledo: 211.6 vs Bowling Green: 158.3
Total Yards (L5) +24.2% more
Toledo: 446.0 vs Bowling Green: 338.1
First Downs (L5) +21.0% more
Toledo: 23.2 vs Bowling Green: 18.4
Turnovers (L5) +91.0% more
Bowling Green: 1.9 vs Toledo: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 39.0 23
BGSU Score 11.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 23.2 10.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 158.3 / 211.6 61.0 / 165.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.17 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 338.1 / 446.0 226.0 / 429.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
BGSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
BGSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +17.3
BGSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
TOL
BGSU
TOL
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
25% 1-3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2-1
TTL
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jedd Fisch Hints at Offensive Line Shakeup as Landen Hatchett Ne…
yahoo 2 days, 5 hours ago
Falcons Soar Past Saints in Prime-Time Blowout: Penix, Robinson …
si 2 days, 18 hours ago
Troy Aikman Stunned by Tyler Shough's Seven-Year College Journey…
themirror 2 days, 18 hours ago
Texas AD Chris Del Conte Slams Longhorns' Vulgar Celebrations as…
cenlanow 1 week, 1 day ago
Falcons Thrust into Primetime Abyss After Disastrous 0-2 Start
yardbarker 2 weeks, 3 days ago