Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UCLA @ Michigan St UCLA @ MSU

UCLA

UCLAUCLA

1-4  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 12:00 PM ET
Spartan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

3-2  |  Home

13
Key Game
Mateen Bhaghani
KEY GAME

Mateen Bhaghani

#15 | Place kicker
@
Kekai Burnett
KEY GAME

Kekai Burnett

#51 | EDGE
Player
Mateen Bhaghani None-None
Kekai Burnett None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCLA
100%
📊
MICHIGAN ST
0%
UCLA --
MICHIGAN ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Michigan State)
UCLAUCLA (-3.5) 0 Michigan StMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UCLA Cover

30.9%

Michigan St Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

UCLA By 1-6 points

12.9%

UCLA By 7-13 points

9.6%

MSU By 1-6 points

16.5%

MSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
UCLA
46
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
24
UCLA
31
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Michigan St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Michigan St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Michigan St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Michigan St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 UCLA @ MSU 38 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +97.0% more
Michigan State: 1.5 vs UCLA: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.4% more
UCLA: 170.3 vs Michigan State: 118.6
Total Yards (L5) +13.2% more
UCLA: 366.9 vs Michigan State: 318.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
UCLA: 0.5 vs Michigan State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCLA Score 39.0 38
MSU Score 46.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.2 / 19.7 14.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 118.6 / 170.3 87.0 / 238.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 318.4 / 366.9 253.0 / 418.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCLA Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +18.0
MSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCLA Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +18.0
MSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UCLA
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +9.3
MSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
UCLA
MSU
UCLA
ML
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2-1
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3-1
0% 0-3-1
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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