Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UCF @ Cincinnati UCF @ CIN

UCF

UCFUCF

3-2  |  Road

11
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 12:00 PM ET
Nippert Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

CINCINNATICIN

4-1  |  Home

20
Key Game
Braeden Marshall
KEY GAME

Braeden Marshall

#4 | Defensive Back
@
Max Fletcher
KEY GAME

Max Fletcher

#31 | Punter
Player
Braeden Marshall None-None
Max Fletcher None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCF
0%
📊
CINCINNATI
100%
UCF --
CINCINNATI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
27.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (UCF)
UCFUCF (-3.5) 0 CincinnatiCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UCF Cover

64.0%

Cincinnati Cover

36.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UCF -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

UCF By 1-6 points

16.9%

UCF By 7-13 points

18.5%

CIN By 1-6 points

14.2%

CIN By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16
UCF
11
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
24
UCF
27
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI UCF Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Cincinnati Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UCF (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Sim Cincinnati (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 27.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 UCF @ CIN 11 - 20
Oct 12, 2024 CIN @ UCF 19 - 13
Nov 4, 2023 UCF @ CIN 28 - 26
Oct 29, 2022 CIN @ UCF 21 - 25
Oct 16, 2021 UCF @ CIN 21 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +37.7% more
UCF: 1.3 vs Cincinnati: 0.8
Total Yards (L5) +21.8% more
Cincinnati: 492.9 vs UCF: 404.7
First Downs (L5) +14.2% more
Cincinnati: 22.6 vs UCF: 19.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.4% more
Cincinnati: 220.6 vs UCF: 201.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCF Score 16.0 11
CIN Score 11.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.6 / 19.8 14.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 220.6 / 201.6 115.0 / 191.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.22 / 0.39
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.34 / 0.66
Total Yards 492.9 / 404.7 306.0 / 413.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCF
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
CIN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCF Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
CIN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UCF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.7
CIN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
UCF
CIN
UCF
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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