Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Houston @ Oklahoma St HOU @ OKST

HOUSTON

HOUSTONHOU

4-1  |  Road

39
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 12:00 PM ET
Boone Pickens Stadium
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA STATE

OKLAHOMA STOKST

1-4  |  Home

17
Key Game
Liam Dougherty
KEY GAME

Liam Dougherty

#91 | Punter
@
Cooper Lai
KEY GAME

Cooper Lai

#29 | Safety
Player
Liam Dougherty None-None
Cooper Lai None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HOUSTON
0%
📊
OKLAHOMA ST
100%
HOUSTON --
OKLAHOMA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
23.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Houston)
HoustonHOU (-3.5) 0 Oklahoma StOKST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Houston Cover

52.8%

Oklahoma St Cover

47.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-6 points

16.7%

HOU By 7-13 points

16.1%

OKST By 1-6 points

16.1%

OKST By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
12
HOUSTON
11
OKLAHOMA STATE
Simulated Score
31
HOUSTON
24
OKLAHOMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Houston Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Houston Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Houston (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Sim Houston (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 23.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 HOU @ OKST 39 - 17
Nov 18, 2023 OKST @ HOU 43 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +25.6% more
Houston: 1.6 vs Oklahoma State: 1.2
Total Yards (L5) +8.8% more
Houston: 327.7 vs Oklahoma State: 298.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 12.0 39
OKST Score 11.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.6 / 15.5 10.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 129.3 / 131.7 45.0 / 166.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.36 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 298.9 / 327.7 225.0 / 485.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
OKST
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
OKST Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.5
OKST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKST
HOU
OKST
HOU
ML
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Dylan Raiola Highlights UCLA's Autzen Stadium Experience as Key …
si 0 minutes ago
Brent Venables Embraces Red River Rivalry Despite Struggles Agai…
si 1 day, 5 hours ago
Troy Aikman Stunned by Tyler Shough's Seven-Year College Journey…
themirror 2 days, 18 hours ago
Iowa's Big Ten Championship Hopes Remain Alive Despite Ohio Stat…
yahoo 3 days, 18 hours ago
Auburn Fans Call for Offensive Coordinator's Job After Frustrati…
si 4 days ago