Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / N Illinois @ E Michigan NIU @ EMU

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

1-4  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 1:00 PM ET
Rynearson Stadium
View Odds Details →

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

1-5  |  Home

16
Key Game
Jake Ference
KEY GAME

Jake Ference

#36 | Punter
@
Rudy Kessinger
KEY GAME

Rudy Kessinger

#46 | Place kicker
Player
Jake Ference None-None
Rudy Kessinger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N ILLINOIS
0%
📊
E MICHIGAN
100%
N ILLINOIS --
E MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Northern Illinois)
N IllinoisNIU (-3.5) 0 E MichiganEMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N Illinois Cover

97.7%

E Michigan Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NIU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIU)

NIU By 1-6 points

3.8%

NIU By 7-13 points

8.8%

EMU By 1-6 points

1.4%

EMU By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
11
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
21
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
24
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI N Illinois Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim E Michigan Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI N Illinois (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim E Michigan (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 NIU @ EMU 10 - 16
Oct 21, 2023 EMU @ NIU 13 - 20
Oct 15, 2022 NIU @ EMU 39 - 10
Oct 2, 2021 EMU @ NIU 20 - 27
Dec 12, 2020 NIU @ EMU 33 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +43.1% more
Northern Illinois: 1.2 vs Eastern Michigan: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +62.1% more
Eastern Michigan: 21.4 vs Northern Illinois: 13.2
Total Yards (L5) +54.1% more
Eastern Michigan: 373.4 vs Northern Illinois: 242.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.4% more
Eastern Michigan: 170.0 vs Northern Illinois: 134.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIU Score 39.0 10
EMU Score 11.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.4 / 13.2 17.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 170.0 / 134.5 149.0 / 238.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 373.4 / 242.3 296.0 / 332.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
EMU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
EMU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NIU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.3
EMU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EMU
NIU
EMU
NIU
ML
67% 4-2
75% 3-1
50% 3-3
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 3-3
50% 2-2
33% 2-4
50% 2-2
TTL
67% 4-2
50% 2-2
50% 3-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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