Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Air Force @ UNLV AFA @ UNLV

AIR FORCE

AIR FORCEAFA

1-4  |  Road

48
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 3:30 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

UNLV

UNLVUNLV

5-0  |  Home

51
Key Game
Jacob Medina
KEY GAME

Jacob Medina

#39 | Place kicker
@
DeAngelo Irvin Jr.
KEY GAME

DeAngelo Irvin Jr.

#4 | Wide Receiver
Player
Jacob Medina None-None
DeAngelo Irvin Jr. None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AIR FORCE
0%
📊
UNLV
100%
AIR FORCE --
UNLV --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
27.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
AIR FORCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Air Force)
Air ForceAFA (-3.5) 0 UNLVUNLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Air Force Cover

64.0%

UNLV Cover

36.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around AFA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AFA)

AFA By 1-6 points

16.9%

AFA By 7-13 points

18.5%

UNLV By 1-6 points

14.2%

UNLV By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16
AIR FORCE
11
UNLV
Simulated Score
24
AIR FORCE
27
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Air Force Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UNLV Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Air Force (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Sim UNLV (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 27.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 AFA @ UNLV 48 - 51
Nov 18, 2023 UNLV @ AFA 31 - 27
Oct 15, 2022 AFA @ UNLV 42 - 7
Nov 26, 2021 UNLV @ AFA 14 - 48
Oct 19, 2018 AFA @ UNLV 41 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.9% more
Air Force: 237.8 vs UNLV: 185.7
Total Yards (L5) +18.3% more
Air Force: 458.7 vs UNLV: 375.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AFA Score 16.0 48
UNLV Score 11.0 51
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 21.6 24.0 / 32.0
Rushing Yards 185.7 / 237.8 220.0 / 428.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 375.0 / 458.7 597.0 / 603.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AFA Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
UNLV
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AFA
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
UNLV Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
AFA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
UNLV
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
AFA
UNLV
AFA
ML
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
ATS
20% 1-4
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
TTL
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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