Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Northwestern @ Penn State NU @ PSU

NORTHWESTERN

NORTHWESTERNNU

3-2  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 3:30 PM ET
Beaver Stadium
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

3-2  |  Home

21
Key Game
Robby Preckel
KEY GAME

Robby Preckel

#41 | Running Back
@
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
Player
Robby Preckel None-None
Ryan Barker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTHWESTERN
100%
📊
PENN STATE
0%
NORTHWESTERN --
PENN STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Penn State)
NorthwesternNU (-3.5) 0 Penn StatePSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Northwestern Cover

1.6%

Penn State Cover

98.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PSU -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

NU By 1-6 points

1.0%

NU By 7-13 points

0.4%

PSU By 1-6 points

2.9%

PSU By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16
NORTHWESTERN
46
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
13
NORTHWESTERN
38
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Penn State Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Penn State Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Penn State (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
C
Sim Penn State (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 2, 2026 PSU @ NU 13 - 34
Oct 11, 2025 NU @ PSU 22 - 21
Sep 30, 2023 PSU @ NU 41 - 13
Oct 1, 2022 NU @ PSU 7 - 17
Oct 7, 2017 PSU @ NU 31 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +18.4% more
Northwestern: 1.0 vs Penn State: 0.8
Time of Possession (L5) +14.0% more
Northwestern: 0.6 vs Penn State: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.2% more
Northwestern: 195.6 vs Penn State: 175.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Northwestern: 0.5 vs Penn State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NU Score 16.0 22
PSU Score 46.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 21.5 13.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 175.6 / 195.6 137.0 / 119.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.6 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 368.8 / 395.0 274.0 / 282.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
PSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
PSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NU
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +1.5
PSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
NU
PSU
NU
ML
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
ATS
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
TTL
80% 4-1
100% 3-0
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Brent Venables Embraces Red River Rivalry Despite Struggles Agai…
si 1 day, 9 hours ago
USC Football Cranks Up Volume to Simulate Penn State's White Out
headtopics 1 day, 22 hours ago
Jedd Fisch Hints at Offensive Line Shakeup as Landen Hatchett Ne…
yahoo 2 days, 9 hours ago
Penn State's Season in Turmoil After Consecutive Losses
yahoo 3 days, 15 hours ago
Ryan Field Reopens to Rave Reviews from National College Footbal…
dailynorthwestern 3 days, 22 hours ago