Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Iowa State @ Colorado ISU @ COLO

IOWA STATE

IOWA STATEISU

5-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 3:30 PM ET
Folsom Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

COLORADOCOLO

2-4  |  Home

24
Key Game
Rylan Barnes
KEY GAME

Rylan Barnes

#41 | Tight End
@
Damon Greaves
KEY GAME

Damon Greaves

#35 | Punter
Player
Rylan Barnes None-None
Damon Greaves None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IOWA STATE
100%
📊
COLORADO
0%
IOWA STATE --
COLORADO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Colorado)
Iowa StateISU (-3.5) 0 ColoradoCOLO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Iowa State Cover

30.9%

Colorado Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around COLO -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLO)

ISU By 1-6 points

12.9%

ISU By 7-13 points

9.6%

COLO By 1-6 points

16.5%

COLO By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
IOWA STATE
46
COLORADO
Simulated Score
24
IOWA STATE
28
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Colorado Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Colorado Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Colorado (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Colorado (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 ISU @ COLO 17 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +137.0% more
Colorado: 2.0 vs Iowa State: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +17.0% more
Iowa State: 23.0 vs Colorado: 19.1
Total Yards (L5) +16.0% more
Iowa State: 418.4 vs Colorado: 351.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ISU Score 39.0 17
COLO Score 46.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.1 / 23.0 16.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 136.5 / 147.8 140.0 / 236.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 351.4 / 418.4 395.0 / 441.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
COLO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.8 ATS +/-: -8.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
COLO
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.8 ATS +/-: -8.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.1
COLO
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -8.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLO
ISU
COLO
ISU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
75% 3-1-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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