Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Indiana @ Oregon IU @ ORE

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

5-0  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 3:30 PM ET
Autzen Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON

OREGONORE

5-0  |  Home

20
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Mitch McCarthy

#44 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Matayo Uiagalelei

#10 | Linebacker
Player
Mitch McCarthy None-None
Matayo Uiagalelei None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
INDIANA
100%
📊
OREGON
0%
INDIANA --
OREGON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Oregon)
IndianaIU (-3.5) 0 OregonORE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Indiana Cover

30.9%

Oregon Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ORE -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)

IU By 1-6 points

12.9%

IU By 7-13 points

9.6%

ORE By 1-6 points

16.5%

ORE By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
INDIANA
46
OREGON
Simulated Score
17
INDIANA
42
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oregon Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oregon Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oregon (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Oregon (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 9, 2026 ORE @ IU 22 - 56
Oct 11, 2025 IU @ ORE 30 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +29.0% more
Indiana: 0.5 vs Oregon: 0.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Indiana: 0.6 vs Oregon: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IU Score 39.0 30
ORE Score 46.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 25.2 14.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 209.6 / 215.9 81.0 / 111.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.6 0.21 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 473.1 / 479.7 267.0 / 326.0
Turnovers 0.2 / 0.5 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
ORE
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
ORE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.7
ORE
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
IU
ORE
IU
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
TTL
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
UTSA Silences Doubters with 31-24 Win Over USF After Hartline's …
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Dylan Raiola Highlights UCLA's Autzen Stadium Experience as Key …
si 3 hours, 35 minutes ago
Red River Rivalry 2026: Essential Fan Guide for Sooners vs. Long…
news9 1 day, 9 hours ago
UCLA Gears Up for Dual Threat: Oregon's Raiola and Moore Demand …
dailybreeze 1 day, 21 hours ago
Mountaineers' Defensive Coordinator Zac Alley Loses Sleep Over S…
observer_reporter 2 days, 3 hours ago