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UAB

UABUAB

2-3  |  Road

33
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 6:00 PM ET
Flagler Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

FAUFAU

2-3  |  Home

53
Key Game
Jonah Delange
KEY GAME

Jonah Delange

#39 | Place kicker
@
Hector Chavez
KEY GAME

Hector Chavez

#43 | Linebacker
Player
Jonah Delange None-None
Hector Chavez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UAB
100%
📊
FAU
0%
UAB --
FAU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Florida Atlantic)
UABUAB (-3.5) 0 FAUFAU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UAB Cover

0.2%

FAU Cover

99.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FAU -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAU)

UAB By 1-6 points

0.1%

UAB By 7-13 points

0.0%

FAU By 1-6 points

0.6%

FAU By 7-13 points

2.1%

AI Model Projected Score
10
UAB
50
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Simulated Score
24
UAB
28
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI FAU Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim FAU Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI FAU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
C
Sim FAU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 UAB @ FAU 33 - 53
Nov 4, 2023 FAU @ UAB 42 - 45
Oct 29, 2022 UAB @ FAU 17 - 24
Oct 9, 2021 FAU @ UAB 14 - 31
Dec 7, 2019 UAB @ FAU 6 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.6% more
Florida Atlantic: 128.1 vs UAB: 95.2
First Downs (L5) +9.2% more
Florida Atlantic: 21.9 vs UAB: 20.0
Turnovers (L5) +8.9% more
Florida Atlantic: 2.0 vs UAB: 1.8
Total Yards (L5) +8.3% more
Florida Atlantic: 432.3 vs UAB: 399.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAB Score 10.0 33
FAU Score 50.0 53
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 20.0 24.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 128.1 / 95.2 141.0 / 68.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.3 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 432.3 / 399.0 482.0 / 329.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.8 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +0.4
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAB
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +0.4
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UAB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
FAU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAU
UAB
FAU
UAB
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 2-2-1
20% 1-4
75% 3-1-1
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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