Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Florida @ Texas A&M FLA @ TA&M

FLORIDA

FLORIDAFLA

2-3  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Kyle Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS A&M

TEXAS A&MTA&M

5-0  |  Home

34
Key Game
Jeramiah McCloud
KEY GAME

Jeramiah McCloud

#91 | Defensive Lineman
@
Marco Jones
KEY GAME

Marco Jones

#10 | Defensive End
Player
Jeramiah McCloud None-None
Marco Jones None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FLORIDA
100%
📊
TEXAS A&M
0%
FLORIDA --
TEXAS A&M --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Texas A&M)
FloridaFLA (-3.5) 0 Texas A&MTA&M (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Florida Cover

30.9%

Texas A&M Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TA&M -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TA&M)

FLA By 1-6 points

12.9%

FLA By 7-13 points

9.6%

TA&M By 1-6 points

16.5%

TA&M By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
FLORIDA
46
TEXAS A&M
Simulated Score
24
FLORIDA
27
TEXAS A&M
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas A&M Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas A&M Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas A&M (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Texas A&M (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 FLA @ TA&M 17 - 34
Sep 14, 2024 TA&M @ FLA 33 - 20
Nov 5, 2022 FLA @ TA&M 41 - 24
Oct 10, 2020 FLA @ TA&M 38 - 41
Oct 14, 2017 TA&M @ FLA 19 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +60.2% more
Texas A&M: 215.4 vs Florida: 134.4
Total Yards (L5) +28.4% more
Texas A&M: 457.9 vs Florida: 356.8
First Downs (L5) +22.3% more
Texas A&M: 22.9 vs Florida: 18.7
Turnovers (L5) +39.1% more
Florida: 1.7 vs Texas A&M: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FLA Score 39.0 17
TA&M Score 46.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 18.7 19.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 215.4 / 134.4 183.0 / 74.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.53 / 0.1
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 457.9 / 356.8 417.0 / 319.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.7 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FLA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
TA&M
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FLA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
TA&M
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
FLA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.1
TA&M
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TA&M
FLA
TA&M
FLA
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
American Conference Week 6: A 100-Pound Rib Trophy, a Walk-On's …
yahoo 2 hours, 12 minutes ago
Hurricane Isaias Puts Bengals-Dolphins Clash on Weather Watch
yahoo 2 hours, 22 minutes ago
Thursday Night College Football: UTSA vs. South Florida Headline…
usatoday 14 hours, 25 minutes ago
Pete Golding Emphasizes Execution Over Scheme Change as Ole Miss…
si 1 day, 2 hours ago
Florida's Jon Sumrall Eyes Five-Star Flip as Gators Host Easton …
newsweek 1 day, 8 hours ago