PURDUE
PURDUEPUR
2-3 | Road
20
MINNESOTA
MINNESOTAMINN
3-2 | Home
27
Key Game
KEY GAME
Fame Ijeboi
#2 | Running Back@
KEY GAME
Joey Gerlach
#19 | Linebacker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Fame Ijeboi | None-None |
| Joey Gerlach | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PURDUE
100%
MINNESOTA
0%
PURDUE
--
MINNESOTA
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MINN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MINN)
PUR By 1-6 points
12.9%
PUR By 7-13 points
9.6%
MINN By 1-6 points
16.5%
MINN By 7-13 points
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Purdue
39
PURDUE
Minnesota
46
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Purdue
20
PURDUE
Minnesota
24
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Minnesota
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Minnesota
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Minnesota (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim
Minnesota (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 11, 2025
PUR @ MINN
20 - 27
Nov 11, 2023
MINN @ PUR
30 - 49
Oct 1, 2022
PUR @ MINN
20 - 10
Oct 2, 2021
MINN @ PUR
20 - 13
Nov 20, 2020
PUR @ MINN
31 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+69.2% more
Purdue: 2.0
vs
Minnesota: 0.6
Total Yards (L5)
+20.1% more
Purdue: 384.8
vs
Minnesota: 307.5
First Downs (L5)
+19.4% more
Purdue: 22.3
vs
Minnesota: 17.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PUR Score
39.0
20
MINN Score
46.0
27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
17.9 / 22.3
17.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards
103.6 / 109.1
30.0 / 253.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.4
0.33 / 0.4
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.42 / 0.57
Total Yards
307.5 / 384.8
262.0 / 456.0
Turnovers
0.6 / 2.0
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -4.6
ATS +/-: -1.1
MINN
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 14.0
ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -4.6
ATS +/-: -1.1
MINN
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 14.0
ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +9.3
MINN
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
PUR
MINN
PUR
ML
40%
2-3
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
ATS
60%
3-2
25%
1-3-1
40%
2-3
50%
2-2-1
TTL
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
20%
1-4
40%
2-3
Contextual Game News
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