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RICE

RICERICE

3-3  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 7:30 PM ET
Alamodome
View Odds Details →

UTSA

UTSAUTSA

2-3  |  Home

61
Key Game
Enock Gota
KEY GAME

Enock Gota

#28 | Place kicker
@
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
Player
Enock Gota None-None
Caile Hogan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RICE
100%
📊
UTSA
0%
RICE --
UTSA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
UTSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (UTSA)
RiceRICE (-3.5) 0 UTSAUTSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rice Cover

30.9%

UTSA Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTSA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTSA)

RICE By 1-6 points

12.9%

RICE By 7-13 points

9.6%

UTSA By 1-6 points

16.5%

UTSA By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
RICE
46
UTSA
Simulated Score
20
RICE
34
UTSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UTSA Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UTSA Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UTSA (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim UTSA (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 UTSA @ RICE 16 - 14
Oct 11, 2025 RICE @ UTSA 13 - 61
Oct 12, 2024 UTSA @ RICE 27 - 29
Nov 11, 2023 RICE @ UTSA 14 - 34
Nov 19, 2022 UTSA @ RICE 41 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +104.0% more
UTSA: 1.3 vs Rice: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +14.8% more
UTSA: 376.8 vs Rice: 328.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.9% more
Rice: 200.3 vs UTSA: 156.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RICE Score 39.0 13
UTSA Score 46.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 17.9 21.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 156.5 / 200.3 191.0 / 190.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 376.8 / 328.1 437.0 / 269.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.3 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RICE
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: +1.5
UTSA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RICE
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: +1.5
UTSA Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
RICE
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.7
UTSA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTSA
RICE
UTSA
RICE
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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