Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / BYU @ Arizona BYU @ ARIZ

BYU

BYUBYU

5-0  |  Road

33
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 8:00 PM ET
Arizona Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

4-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
Tausili Akana
KEY GAME

Tausili Akana

#13 | Defensive End
@
Michael Salgado-Medina
KEY GAME

Michael Salgado-Medina

#19 | Place kicker
Player
Tausili Akana None-None
Michael Salgado-Medina None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BYU
100%
📊
ARIZONA
0%
BYU --
ARIZONA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Arizona)
BYUBYU (-3.5) 0 ArizonaARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

BYU Cover

30.9%

Arizona Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARIZ -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

BYU By 1-6 points

12.9%

BYU By 7-13 points

9.6%

ARIZ By 1-6 points

16.5%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
BYU
46
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
24
BYU
31
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arizona Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arizona Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arizona (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Arizona (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 ARIZ @ BYU 17 - 28
Oct 11, 2025 BYU @ ARIZ 33 - 27
Oct 12, 2024 ARIZ @ BYU 19 - 41
Sep 4, 2021 BYU @ ARIZ 24 - 16
Sep 1, 2018 BYU @ ARIZ 28 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +37.7% more
Arizona: 1.9 vs BYU: 1.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +43.5% more
BYU: 195.0 vs Arizona: 110.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BYU Score 39.0 33
ARIZ Score 46.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 23.3 23.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 110.1 / 195.0 164.0 / 258.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.24 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 416.0 / 441.1 383.0 / 430.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BYU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 23.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
ARIZ
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BYU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 23.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
ARIZ
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BYU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.8
ARIZ
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
BYU
ARIZ
BYU
ML
100% 5-0
100% 3-0
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
ATS
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
TTL
40% 2-3
0% 0-3
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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