Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Troy @ Texas St TROY @ TXST

TROY

TROYTROY

2-2  |  Road

48
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 8:00 PM ET
UFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

3-2  |  Home

41
Key Game
Evan Crenshaw
KEY GAME

Evan Crenshaw

#28 | Punter
@
Cole Nilles
KEY GAME

Cole Nilles

#10 | Linebacker
Player
Evan Crenshaw None-None
Cole Nilles None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TROY
100%
📊
TEXAS ST
0%
TROY --
TEXAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Texas State)
TroyTROY (-3.5) 0 Texas StTXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Troy Cover

1.6%

Texas St Cover

98.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TXST -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)

TROY By 1-6 points

1.0%

TROY By 7-13 points

0.4%

TXST By 1-6 points

2.9%

TXST By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16
TROY
46
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
20
TROY
31
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
C
Sim Texas St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 TROY @ TXST 48 - 41
Oct 3, 2024 TXST @ TROY 38 - 17
Oct 28, 2023 TROY @ TXST 31 - 13
Oct 15, 2022 TXST @ TROY 14 - 17
Oct 16, 2021 TROY @ TXST 31 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.6% more
Texas State: 232.1 vs Troy: 166.2
Total Yards (L5) +31.0% more
Texas State: 459.1 vs Troy: 350.4
First Downs (L5) +20.6% more
Texas State: 23.5 vs Troy: 19.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Texas State: 0.5 vs Troy: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TROY Score 16.0 48
TXST Score 46.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 19.5 21.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 232.1 / 166.2 326.0 / 43.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.59 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 459.1 / 350.4 574.0 / 458.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.8 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +1.3
TXST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
TROY
TXST
TROY
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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