Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico @ Boise St UNM @ BOIS

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

3-2  |  Road

25
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 9:45 PM ET
Albertsons Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

3-2  |  Home

41
Key Game
Drew Speech
KEY GAME

Drew Speech

#12 | Safety
@
Colton Boomer
KEY GAME

Colton Boomer

#35 | Place kicker
Player
Drew Speech None-None
Colton Boomer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO
0%
📊
BOISE ST
100%
NEW MEXICO --
BOISE ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (New Mexico)
New MexicoUNM (-3.5) 0 Boise StBOIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico Cover

97.7%

Boise St Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UNM -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

UNM By 1-6 points

3.8%

UNM By 7-13 points

8.8%

BOIS By 1-6 points

1.4%

BOIS By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
NEW MEXICO
11
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
17
NEW MEXICO
38
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI New Mexico Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Boise St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI New Mexico (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Boise St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 UNM @ BOIS 25 - 41
Nov 11, 2023 UNM @ BOIS 14 - 42
Sep 9, 2022 BOIS @ UNM 31 - 14
Nov 20, 2021 UNM @ BOIS 0 - 37
Nov 16, 2019 UNM @ BOIS 9 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +12.8% more
New Mexico: 2.2 vs Boise State: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 39.0 25
BOIS Score 11.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.4 / 25.1 27.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 173.8 / 164.1 161.0 / 49.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.68 / 0.32
Total Yards 440.2 / 432.8 397.0 / 231.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 2.2 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
BOIS
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
BOIS
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.5
BOIS
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
UNM
BOIS
UNM
ML
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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