Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / San Diego St @ Nevada SDSU @ NEV

SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

4-1  |  Road

44
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 10:30 PM ET
Mackay Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

NEVADANEV

1-4  |  Home

10
Key Game
Amari Comier
KEY GAME

Amari Comier

#91 | Defensive Lineman
@
Joe McFadden
KEY GAME

Joe McFadden

#84 | Place kicker
Player
Amari Comier None-None
Joe McFadden None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN DIEGO ST
100%
📊
NEVADA
0%
SAN DIEGO ST --
NEVADA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Nevada)
San Diego StSDSU (-3.5) 0 NevadaNEV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San Diego St Cover

30.9%

Nevada Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NEV -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)

SDSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

SDSU By 7-13 points

9.6%

NEV By 1-6 points

16.5%

NEV By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
SAN DIEGO STATE
46
NEVADA
Simulated Score
17
SAN DIEGO STATE
24
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nevada Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Nevada Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nevada (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Nevada (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 SDSU @ NEV 44 - 10
Oct 21, 2023 NEV @ SDSU 6 - 0
Oct 22, 2022 SDSU @ NEV 23 - 7
Nov 13, 2021 NEV @ SDSU 21 - 23
Nov 21, 2020 SDSU @ NEV 21 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +239.0% more
Nevada: 2.9 vs San Diego State: 0.5
Total Yards (L5) +16.5% more
San Diego State: 384.3 vs Nevada: 321.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.6% more
San Diego State: 188.1 vs Nevada: 164.4
First Downs (L5) +12.3% more
San Diego State: 19.8 vs Nevada: 17.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 39.0 44
NEV Score 46.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.4 / 19.8 15.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 164.4 / 188.1 60.0 / 204.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.21 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 321.1 / 384.3 254.0 / 409.0
Turnovers 2.9 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
NEV
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
NEV Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.7
NEV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
SDSU
NEV
SDSU
ML
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
TTL
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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