Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Utah State @ Hawai'i USU @ HAW

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

3-2  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 11:59 PM ET
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
View Odds Details →

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

4-2  |  Home

44
Key Game
Mataira Brown
KEY GAME

Mataira Brown

#16 | Linebacker
@
Julian Smith
KEY GAME

Julian Smith

#7 | Linebacker
Player
Mataira Brown None-None
Julian Smith None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTAH STATE
100%
📊
HAWAI'I
0%
UTAH STATE --
HAWAI'I --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Hawai'i)
Utah StateUSU (-3.5) 0 Hawai'iHAW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Utah State Cover

1.6%

Hawai'i Cover

98.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HAW -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

USU By 1-6 points

1.0%

USU By 7-13 points

0.4%

HAW By 1-6 points

2.9%

HAW By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16
UTAH STATE
46
HAWAI'I
Simulated Score
24
UTAH STATE
28
HAWAI'I
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hawai'i Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Hawai'i Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hawai'i (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
C
Sim Hawai'i (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 USU @ HAW 26 - 44
Nov 16, 2024 HAW @ USU 10 - 55
Nov 12, 2022 USU @ HAW 41 - 34
Oct 30, 2021 HAW @ USU 31 - 51
Nov 3, 2018 USU @ HAW 56 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +41.2% more
Hawai'i: 1.6 vs Utah State: 1.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Hawai'i: 0.5 vs Utah State: 0.4
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Hawai'i: 0.6 vs Utah State: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +52.9% more
Utah State: 192.5 vs Hawai'i: 90.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 16.0 26
HAW Score 46.0 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.3 / 22.4 26.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 90.7 / 192.5 133.0 / 166.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 410.5 / 452.7 546.0 / 435.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -14.9
HAW
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAW
USU
HAW
USU
ML
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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