Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Fresno St @ Colorado St FRES @ CSU

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

5-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Fri, Oct 10 • 9:00 PM ET
Canvas Stadium
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

COLORADO STCSU

1-4  |  Home

49
Key Game
Jordan Malau'ulu
KEY GAME

Jordan Malau'ulu

#10 | Wide Receiver
@
Dagan Myers
KEY GAME

Dagan Myers

#3 | Safety
Player
Jordan Malau'ulu None-None
Dagan Myers None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FRESNO ST
100%
📊
COLORADO ST
0%
FRESNO ST --
COLORADO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Colorado State)
Fresno StFRES (-3.5) 0 Colorado StCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fresno St Cover

30.9%

Colorado St Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

FRES By 1-6 points

12.9%

FRES By 7-13 points

9.6%

CSU By 1-6 points

16.5%

CSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
FRESNO STATE
46
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
31
FRESNO STATE
28
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Colorado St Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Fresno St Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Colorado St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim Fresno St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2025 FRES @ CSU 21 - 49
Nov 23, 2024 CSU @ FRES 22 - 28
Oct 29, 2020 CSU @ FRES 17 - 38
Oct 26, 2019 CSU @ FRES 41 - 31
Nov 5, 2016 FRES @ CSU 0 - 37
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +11.4% more
Colorado State: 21.1 vs Fresno State: 18.9
Turnovers (L5) +14.8% more
Fresno State: 1.2 vs Colorado State: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 39.0 21
CSU Score 46.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.1 / 18.9 15.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards 151.4 / 151.9 190.0 / 119.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 363.6 / 358.7 334.0 / 469.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.2 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
CSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
CSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
CSU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +20.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
FRES
CSU
FRES
ML
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
0% 0-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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