Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Southern Miss @ GA Southern USM @ GASO

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

3-2  |  Road

38
FINAL
Thu, Oct 9 • 8:00 PM ET
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

GA SOUTHERNGASO

2-3  |  Home

35
Key Game
Reed Harradine
KEY GAME

Reed Harradine

#96 | Place kicker
@
Tripp Bryant
KEY GAME

Tripp Bryant

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Reed Harradine None-None
Tripp Bryant None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTHERN MISS
100%
📊
GA SOUTHERN
0%
SOUTHERN MISS --
GA SOUTHERN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Georgia Southern)
Southern MissUSM (-3.5) 0 GA SouthernGASO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Southern Miss Cover

30.9%

GA Southern Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GASO -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GASO)

USM By 1-6 points

12.9%

USM By 7-13 points

9.6%

GASO By 1-6 points

16.5%

GASO By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
SOUTHERN MISS
46
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
24
SOUTHERN MISS
28
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI GA Southern Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim GA Southern Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI GA Southern (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim GA Southern (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 9, 2025 USM @ GASO 38 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +8.8% more
Georgia Southern: 1.1 vs Southern Miss: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.3% more
Southern Miss: 152.7 vs Georgia Southern: 126.3
First Downs (L5) +15.6% more
Southern Miss: 23.0 vs Georgia Southern: 19.4
Total Yards (L5) +12.5% more
Southern Miss: 389.4 vs Georgia Southern: 340.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 39.0 38
GASO Score 46.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 23.0 24.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 126.3 / 152.7 82.0 / 184.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 340.8 / 389.4 395.0 / 421.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.0 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
GASO Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
GASO Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
GASO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GASO
USM
GASO
USM
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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