Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Jax State @ Sam Houston JXST @ SHSU

JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

2-3  |  Road

29
FINAL
Thu, Oct 9 • 8:00 PM ET
Shell Energy Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAM HOUSTON

SAM HOUSTONSHSU

0-5  |  Home

27
Key Game
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
@
She'Fon Boyd
KEY GAME

She'Fon Boyd

#95 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Conor Donaghy None-None
She'Fon Boyd None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAX STATE
100%
📊
SAM HOUSTON
0%
JAX STATE --
SAM HOUSTON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Sam Houston)
Jax StateJXST (-3.5) 0 Sam HoustonSHSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jax State Cover

1.6%

Sam Houston Cover

98.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SHSU -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)

JXST By 1-6 points

1.0%

JXST By 7-13 points

0.4%

SHSU By 1-6 points

2.9%

SHSU By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16
JACKSONVILLE STATE
46
SAM HOUSTON
Simulated Score
20
JACKSONVILLE STATE
27
SAM HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Sam Houston Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Sam Houston Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Sam Houston (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
B
Sim Sam Houston (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 9, 2025 JXST @ SHSU 29 - 27
Nov 23, 2024 SHSU @ JXST 11 - 21
Sep 28, 2023 JXST @ SHSU 35 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +68.7% more
Jacksonville State: 264.6 vs Sam Houston: 82.9
Total Yards (L5) +38.0% more
Jacksonville State: 423.3 vs Sam Houston: 262.5
First Downs (L5) +30.9% more
Jacksonville State: 22.4 vs Sam Houston: 15.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +27.0% more
Jacksonville State: 0.5 vs Sam Houston: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JXST Score 16.0 29
SHSU Score 46.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.5 / 22.4 15.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 82.9 / 264.6 150.0 / 370.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 262.5 / 423.3 286.0 / 499.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JXST Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
SHSU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JXST
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
SHSU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
⚖️ Over/Under
JXST
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.2
SHSU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHSU
JXST
SHSU
JXST
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
100% 6-0
ATS
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
50% 3-3
TTL
100% 4-0
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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