BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
0-0 | Road
121
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
0-1 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
CELTICS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-7 points
27.3%
BOS By 8-14 points
22.4%
MEM By 1-7 points
19.3%
MEM By 8-14 points
8.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
111.81
BOSTON
Memphis
107.29
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Boston
112
BOSTON
Memphis
118
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Celtics
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Celtics (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.5
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 219.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 20, 2026
BOS @ MEM
117 - 112
Nov 12, 2025
MEM @ BOS
95 - 131
Oct 8, 2025
BOS @ MEM
121 - 103
Mar 31, 2025
BOS @ MEM
117 - 103
Dec 7, 2024
MEM @ BOS
127 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+61.1% more
Memphis: 8.3
vs
Boston: 5.2
Turnovers (L5)
+41.1% more
Memphis: 18.6
vs
Boston: 13.2
Blocks (L5)
+19.6% more
Memphis: 6.8
vs
Boston: 5.7
Rebounding (L5)
+8.2% more
Memphis: 43.5
vs
Boston: 40.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
111.8
121
MEM Score
107.3
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 36.7
18.4 / 28.3
Assists
22.1 / 20.7
21.0 / 26.0
Blocks
6.8 / 5.7
2.0 / 11.0
Field Goal %
43.1 / 43.7
38.6 / 43.6
Free Throw %
81.2 / 73.8
76.2 / 70.6
Rebounding
43.5 / 40.2
53.0 / 49.0
Steals
8.3 / 5.2
10.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
18.6 / 13.2
22.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
BOS
MEM
BOS
ML
57%
59-44
57%
61-46
50%
41-41
53%
47-41
ATS
63%
65-38
59%
61-43-3
50%
41-41
53%
47-41
TTL
70%
71-31-1
56%
60-47
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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